Now that all the counting is done even for the Upper House, I thought I might give a quick summary of the recent Victorian Election’s surprise outcome. (Well a surprise for me in any case).
Prior to the election I thought John Brumby would squeak home with a couple of seats in reserve and pooh poohed talk of a hung Parliament as typical media rubbish trying to beat up a story. As it turned out Labor lost even more votes and the Greens came up empty so their predictions were understated.
Why the election was lost?
It turned out the government fell because of the Public Transport issue in Melbourne’s East and it was perceived that the Conservatives could make a difference. I’m not convinced they can make any difference because folk have been bitching about the subject since the first day but with the recognition of the power of the problem perhaps that area will get some results.
Why Labor missed the key issue
With all the focus on country regions, especially rural hubs, Labor was addressing the country vote assuming the inner city was mostly locked up. They assumed their biggest danger was from the Greens and dealt with that effectively. They also locked up the rural centres which was why I would not concede the election for several days. While watching the count I was looking mainly at the rural centres and they retained those.
What Ted did well.
I didn’t understand it at the time so when Ted Baillieu put the Greens last I thought he had lost his marbles. It looked like he was giving Labor the inner city seats (which it did) and making it just that much harder for him to get the numbers. As it turned out he won in his own right and has taken the shine off Green dreams. Now they have to aim for an outright win in a vote rather than slip by on preferences.
Did Tony Abbott figure in the result?
Surprisingly, yes. The Conservatives were expecting a bigger swing and private Liberal polling has revealed Abbott’s anti refugee stance knocked a couple of percent of the final outcome. In other States this would not crack a mention but Victorians are a little more thoughtful about this issue.
How has Ted started off?
He did bug me when the result was unknown by calling for John Brumby to concede which I regard as an insult to the Voters, (Why shouldn’t all our votes be counted?) but has since endeared himself by suggesting he will be putting an end to non-custodial sentences (Go to your room) and Community Based Orders where the supposed punishment involves standing around leaning on shovels with folk of a similar bad attitude. This is going down very well in a State where there is a bit of Political Correctness fatigue.
The Upper House result
This has finally be resolved in favour of the Conservatives which was quite unexpected. By winning 21 of the 40 seats, Ted still has a 1 seat margin after providing a Speaker. Labor won only 16 which was 3 less than the last election.
Possible bad news
Promises to not allow wind farms within 2 kilometres of housing may be honoured. It was expected that control of the Upper House would stop any threat to the industry but now Ted has to find a way to tie it up in enquiries or risk upsetting the generally greenish Victorian voters. On the numbers the NIMBY’s are miniscule but it’s probably not enough of an issue to make it a one term government. In days gone by you could rely on the Libs to back Business first but who knows what to expect these days? With Joe Hockey going Socialist at the Federal level nothing is impossible.
Position on budgie smugglers
Wears them. What is it about Liberal Leaders and their dicks?